Long-standing US-Turkey relations are shaped by defense industry and global security dynamics. In particular, the sanctions over the S-400 air defense system and the process of de-programming have led Ankara to redesign its defense strategy. In this article, we examine how the current tensions are being managed by bringing together developments around Turkey’s F-35 program, alternative power balances and national defense projects. We also discuss in detail how indigenous solutions such as the KAAN fighter jet have become a strategy for independence.
Decision Moment: The break between S-400 and F-35
Beginning with the Trump era, concerns that Turkey’s purchase of the S-400 system from Russia threatened the operational security of the F-35 paved the way for Washington’s decisions to sanction and exclude Turkey from the program. However, these decisions have reshaped Turkey’s defense security and foreign policy options. While the US view is focused on mitigating technical risks, Turkey does not see this conflict as just a matter of sanctions, but a succession of strategic moves to maintain the regional balance of power and strengthen its independent defense capabilities.
In this process, US-Turkey relations have witnessed significant divergences in areas such as defense industry supply chains, joint exercises and intelligence sharing. Among Turkey’s counter-moves, indigenous solutions and steps to reduce its aging dependence on foreign sources stood out. As a result, the defense budget and technological investments have been rebalanced and Turkey’s position in global supply chains strengthened.
Investment and Challenges: looking beyond $1.4 billion
In the pre-2019 period, Turkey had invested around $1.4 billion under the program, and this investment played a key role in the project. However, new sanctions imposed by the US in 2020 necessitated the search for new collaborations and alternative suppliers in the Turkish defense industry. In this period, domestic production and strategic partnerships came to the fore. For example, aircraft such as the Eurofighter Typhoon and the F-16 were put on the table as alternative options to strengthen Turkey’s air force. In addition, the KAAN project aims to strengthen Turkey ‘s capability to develop indigenous fighter jets. These were concrete steps taken to reduce Turkey’s dependence on foreign sources for its defense.
Barrack’s statements and signals of renewed participation in the F-35 program and continued negotiations on the Russian-made S-400 showed that communication between the two sides is being kept alive. This dialogue aims to reduce tensions between the two countries and revitalize cooperation in the defense industry. But this process entails technical, political and financial risks and requires careful governance on both sides.
Turkey’s Alternative Plans and Future Vision: KAAN and multidimensional defense strategy
Its exclusion from the so-called F-35NL program has prompted Turkey to seek a series of domestic and foreign partnerships to strengthen its air force. The KAAN fighter jet project is at the center of the independence vision, which is planned to enter service by 2028. Thanks to its engineering infrastructure and domestic production capacity, KAAN supports Turkey’s goal of reducing foreign dependence in the defense industry with a concrete step. In addition, F-16 a modernization projects and radar-system integrations increase Turkey’s capacity to ensure air superiority. Trump’s strong signal during the talks at the White House that they are close to lifting the ban on F-35 sales to Ankara is seen as an important indicator for rebuilding trust between the two countries. This is a key step in terms of mutual trust and technical integration.
US-Turkey Relations from Past to Present: Dynamics and lessons
The distant stance seen during the Obama and Biden eras became more pronounced due to human rights and relations with Russia. However, while regional crises, especially the Eastern Mediterranean and Syria policies, have at times strained cooperation between the two countries, they have managed to protect common security interests during critical periods. Dynamics with Israel and conflicts in the Middle East have deepened the complexity of the US-Turkey relationship. Turkey, under Erdogan’s leadership, has made mediation efforts on Ukraine and Gaza, and this role has contributed to maintaining diplomatic communication between the two countries. In this process, domestic production and technology transfer in the defense industry progressed in line with Turkey’s goal of strengthening its own defense ecosystem.
The roadmap for the future will be shaped by political pragmatism, technological competence and strategic autonomy. Turkey wants not only to make its defense industry independent, but also to gain a stronger position in international cooperation and global supply chains. This orientation not only addresses security concerns, but also provides a critical platform for regional leadership and geopolitical influence.
