Trump: F-35 Sale to Türkiye is on the Table

New Balance in Türkiye-US Relations: S-400, F-35 and Who Changes in This Flight Distance?

In today’s geopolitical landscape, tensions between Türkiye and the USA determine not only defense industry investments but also the balance of strategic alliances. While the process that started with the US’s S-400 crisis resulted in Türkiye’s exclusion from the F-35 program, the problems between the two countries are still not resolved. In this article, we examine in depth the short-medium term goals and possible scenarios of the parties, through the motivations behind the S-400 decisions, Türkiye’s uncertainties regarding the F-35, and the potential effects of the Eurofighter Typhoon order.

Two key questions now come to the fore: What steps should Türkiye take to keep its relations with the United States on track? How will the USA draw Türkiye into the process again and what conditions will it set?

1) Roots of the S-400 Permanent Problem and Current Options

The S-400 air defense system, which Türkiye ordered from Russia in 2017, was frequently discussed in public with the US’s F-35 program. In this context, two basic dynamics stand out. First, the question of how the S-400 affects the operational security and integrated defense architecture of the F-35s; The second is Türkiye’s gains in technological independence and industrial capacity. The options currently on the agenda focus on the following four topics:

• Option A: Return and Compromise Framework — Türkiye’s delivery of the S-400s in return for full U.S. participation in the F-35 program.
• Option B: Hybrid Integration — Maintaining U.S. security guarantees and defense cooperation with the S-400 continuing to operate at some level of integration.
• Option C: Alternative Suppliers — Deepening strategic agreements with European or other regional suppliers to strengthen Türkiye’s independent defense industry.
• Option D: Diplomatic Framework — Rebuilding security guarantees by creating confidence-building steps and barriers between Washington and Ankara.

Bloomberg reports and Ankara Ambassador’s views try to establish a balance between the independence goals of the Turkish military industry and the vulnerabilities in the US-Israeli axis security architecture. The information that Türkiye has produced six F-35As, combined with the interruption of delivery processes, creates significant effects on the Turkish defense budget and employment. However, the following facts are becoming clear: The long-term effects of the S-400 decision are no longer just a technological debate; It has become a critical reference point regarding the reorganization of political security alliances.

2) New Dimensions of the F-35 Crisis: Türkiye’s Road Map

Türkiye’s participation in the F-35 program clarified the US decision in 2019 and it was removed from the project. Current analyzes show that Türkiye’s investment and production capacity for the F-35 has not been wasted and that there are hopes for its restructuring. But the truth is that uncertainty about the F-35 remains. This uncertainty can be clarified under the following subheadings:

• Step Forward: Licensed Production and Technology Transfer — Re-evaluation of steps towards the F-35 production chain, with the aim of strengthening Türkiye’s own defense industry.
• Secondary Pathway: Balancing Solutions with European Products — Strengthening safety guarantees through the integration of Eurofighter Typhoon and other avionics platforms.
• Long-Term Scenario: Multi-Camera Security Market — Regional stability and defense industry partnerships moving to a pluralistic model.

Türkiye’s order for 44 Eurofighter Typhoons aims to balance the current uncertainties. This decision is considered not only as a purchasing decision but also as a smart industrial policy. Eurofighter’s high-performance radar and avionics infrastructure could be an important tool to maintain Türkiye’s air superiority. However, this situation raises the question of how it will affect relations with the USA and creates new areas of maneuver between the parties in the field of soft power.

3) Türkiye-US Strategic Dialogue: Economic and Diplomatic Balances Despite Security

Strategic dialogues do not only proceed through military reinforcements; Economic ties, energy security and regional policies also play vital roles. Türkiye’s S-400 and F-35 discussions trigger several fundamental processes in the US’s view of Türkiye:

• Strengthened Security Guarantees — The need for deepened dialogue in areas such as increased security for Ankara, coordination of cross-border operations, and cyber defense cooperation.
• Industrial Independence — Implementation of an accelerated program on domestic production and international partnerships in the defense industry.
• Crisis Management Protocols — Clarification of common crisis management mechanisms so that important decisions can be taken quickly and consistently.

Statements made by US Ambassador to Ankara Tom Barrack suggest that Türkiye may be moving towards an imminent solution to give up the S-400s. This could be a cornerstone that will reshape the security architecture of the two countries. However, in this process, reducing Türkiye’s uncertainty regarding the F-35 will make it easier for the USA to take a clearer position in its regional policies.

4) Regional Security Legacy: Borders, Energy and Strategic Issues

Türkiye’s geographical location makes regional security linked not only to the defense industry, but also to energy and transportation security. S-400 decisions are not just a defense system issue; It is a decision that also affects energy traffic and cyber defense between continental countries. For Türkiye, energy security and resilience against hybrid threats are as critical as defense technologies in this process. In addition, the parties need to establish confidence-building mechanisms to reduce the risks of regional conflict. This means that trade and investment flows also accelerate.

Secondly, it is necessary to draw a clear road map on what kind of progress plan should be followed. The following steps provide a framework that suits the common interests of the two countries:

• Permanent Participation — The steps of joint production and technology transfer programs in the defense industry should be clarified.
• Conventional Diplomacy — High-level security meetings and periodic operation of crisis management mechanisms.
• Economic Integration — Promoting mutual investments in energy and infrastructure, in addition to the arms industry.

5) Practical Road Map for Strategic Stability

A stable road map should include not only political intentions but also the institutional mechanisms that support it. Below are concrete and actionable steps to achieve these goals:

• Opening Diplomatic Channels — Misunderstandings should be prevented by establishing military command-centered crisis communication between the parties.
• Transparency in the Weapons Industry — Reliability should be reinforced by increasing transparency in production and supply processes.
• Confidence Building Units — Joint exercises, cybersecurity cooperation, and coordination in humanitarian areas should be increased.
• Employment and Technology Transfer — The capacity of the domestic defense industry should be strengthened through training and R&D investments.

6) No More Inconclusive Discussions: The Importance of a Pragmatic Approach

The main challenge we face in this process is to adopt a pragmatic and applicable approach, away from ideological jargons. It is possible to follow a balanced path between steps aimed at Türkiye’s independence in the defense industry and maintaining security guarantees with the USA. This balance is not just a political decision; It should also evolve into a strategy that revitalizes the economy, strengthens regional stability and increases the security of the people.