Turkish Young Businessmen Association (TÜGİAD) Bursa Branch organized an event titled "Global Markets and the Future of the Turkish Economy" at Almira Hotel Thermal Spa & Convention Center.
SAĞMAN, “WE EXPECT 45-50 PERCENT INFLATION AT THE END OF THE YEAR”
Explaining his predictions about inflation and the dollar exchange rate, Osmanlı Yatırım Board Advisor Murat Sağman said, “After the election, a rally in the dollar exchange rate was expected, but we did not have such an expectation. At this point, we saw that we were right in our predictions. The basis of the policy currently implemented by the Central Bank is to maintain the dollar exchange rate. We saw this closely with the interest rate increase decision taken before the election. Even though there are fluctuations in the exchange rate, they are controlled. We expect the dollar exchange rate to be around 40 lira at the end of the year. This is what the markets expect. However, for this scenario to occur, life must continue as normal. If there are increases in the exchange rate due to different factors, we will see high levels of inflation. Even though the Central Bank increases interest rates, inflation is currently exceeding interest rates. Inflation will decline due to the base effect during the summer months. What is important is the inflation data that will come in September and October. If the current policy is continued with determination, we expect inflation to be in the 45-50 percent band at the end of the year. "The Central Bank announced a target of 36 percent, but we think that this target will be updated and go higher in the future." he said.
KARAKUŞ: “THE ONE WHO STAYS IN CASH WILL LOSE”
Ottoman Investment Executive Director Gökhan Karakuş stated that Turkey needs around 200 billion dollars in the short term and said: “110 billion dollars of this is the debt of the private sector and the rest is the state's debt. There is a problem regarding the rollover of this debt. However, since we have a foreign trade deficit, we are left with 2 areas. One is tourism revenues, the other is portfolio investments. We call investors who come to our capital markets and buy stocks and bonds portfolio investors. Currently, we do not have any other method of accessing foreign currency. "When we consider these, it becomes very difficult to make a prediction about the domestic markets," he said.
Meanwhile, stating that there is a story of "geography is destiny" on one side, Karakuş said, "The balances in the Middle East are constantly changing. However, we encounter many new problems. The right question here is; “What and how do we manage in times of crisis?” This is exactly what derivatives markets are for. The Central Bank of Türkiye also supports these markets. Investors engaged in production now need to include financial mathematics. In production mathematics, where you are excluded from finance, you become one of the companies that went bankrupt. A company makes a profit from its main activity, its business is good, but when you look at the balance sheet total, it is at a loss. Because; He depleted his equity capital due to the exchange rate difference. That's why it's so important to use derivative products. Derivatives protect you. If a derivative product is included in your cost mechanism, you can do your cost accounting much more easily. In today's table, the one who stays in cash loses. We do not expect a decrease in the dollar exchange rate. Because there is the Central Bank as the general buyer. There is also the issue of Borsa Istanbul. According to us; It would be more meaningful to invest in the Stock Exchange rather than focusing on TL and interest. We see that foreign investors are slowly entering the Istanbul Stock Exchange. Today, 8 million investors were reached in the Stock Exchange. We foresee this number to rise up to 20-25 million. Especially until the US elections, Borsa Istanbul has a greater potential than the American Stock Exchange. Share selection is very important here.” he said.
