The Cause of the Memory Crisis and its Impact on Apple
The rapid growth of AI applications and data centers has led manufacturers to prioritize high-bandwidth and high-capacity solutions. This trend increased demand for HBM, high-capacity DRAM, and high-speed NAND; memory manufacturers allocated limited packaging and testing lines to data center customers, while supply to mobile and consumer segments decreased. Apple came under direct cost pressure as it competed with the same suppliers for data centers and began using more memory per device. Result: increased costs, especially in Pro and higher-end iPhone and Mac models, and the risk of this being reflected in prices increased.
Which components are experiencing shortages and why?
DRAM: There is technology and equipment sharing between mobile high-capacity DRAM production and HBM and data center-focused DRAM production. As manufacturers shifted capacity to data center products that provided higher short-term profits and long-term contracts, the mobile DRAM supply decreased.
NAND: Demand for high-capacity, high-performance NAND comes from data centers and AI applications. As manufacturers shift their investment priorities in this direction, consumer NAND stocks have declined, creating price pressure.
SBGA/BGA packaging and testing capacity: When packaging and testing lines are limited, the release of ready-to-market modules is delayed. This bottleneck causes volume decreases and spot price increases in the short term.
Which products might Apple raise prices on and what are the possible levels of increases?
Analysts’ assessments, both in percentage and absolute terms, suggest that the iPhone Pro series (e.g., high-end models like the iPhone 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max) will be targeted in the first wave. Since these models contain larger RAM and high storage configurations, component costs affect them the most. In the second wave, devices with high memory configurations such as the MacBook Pro and iPad Pro are at risk.
Based on past examples, price increases seen in previous generations in the US market were one-off in the range of $200–$500; In Türkiye, taxes, VAT, and exchange rate differences may alter these figures. Apple may also consider keeping prices stable in the short term and narrowing profit margins; in this case, there may be no immediate impact on the consumer, but if it is not sustainable, an increase may occur in the following period.
What does John Ternus’s statement mean?
Hardware head John Ternus’s statement about an “unprecedented” increase in memory costs reflects a cost shock that directly impacts internal profitability. Such a statement signals to investors and analysts that Apple is considering incorporating the cost increase into its pricing strategy. In practice, this may be seen in the short term as margin optimization in the product portfolio, small savings in component configurations, or the highlighting of higher-priced configurations.
Will memory prices increase until 2027? Data and predictions
Multiple market research organizations predict that the pressure on memory prices may continue until the end of 2026 and the beginning of 2027. TrendForce and Counterpoint Research data indicate that the increase in production capacity directed towards data centers will continue to constrain supply in the consumer segment. In Counterpoint’s scenario, the average global smartphone retail price could increase by ~15% in 2026; however, country-specific variations, competition, and local demand conditions could mitigate or strengthen this trend.
A concrete roadmap for the short and medium term: 1) Pressure will continue until new factory investments and additional production capacity are commissioned. 2) Manufacturers’ pre-order (long-term contract) strategies will determine price volatility. 3) Growth in the second-hand and refurbishment market may somewhat offset demand; however, pressure will not completely subside as long as total new product demand remains high.
Implications for Türkiye: How will prices change, what should we expect?
Price movement in the Turkish market depends on four main factors: exchange rate, taxes and liabilities, Apple’s regional pricing strategy, and local distribution costs. Example calculation scenario: If the price of a device increases by $300 in the US, the same technical price increase may not directly translate to a higher price increase in Türkiye; the final consumer price may increase by a higher percentage due to exchange rates and taxes. Alternative scenario: Apple keeps prices stable in the short term and reduces its profit margin; however, if cost pressure persists, subsequent price revisions will be inevitable.
Step-by-step things consumers should consider when making a purchase decision
1) Clarify your needs — Which model and which memory/storage combination do you really need? Example: A user who frequently takes photos and videos might consider a 512 GB and cloud storage combination instead of 1 TB.
2) Timing strategy — Wait close to new model announcements; prices may fluctuate due to production and stock imbalances. If supply improves 2-3 months after a device’s release, a discount may be possible.
3) Alternative channels — Refurbished products, carrier/operator campaigns, and store discounts can reduce costs in the short term. Guaranteed refurbished devices generally provide savings of 10–30%.
4) Currency and tax tracking — Currency volatility in Türkiye affects purchase timing. Optimizing payment plans and purchase dates according to exchange rate expectations can make a difference of several hundred dollars.
Practices for manufacturers and supply chain
Memory suppliers are trying to balance their customer portfolio with capacity increases, investments in packaging/testing lines, and long-term contracts. Device manufacturers, on the other hand, are diversifying risk with hardware savings that reduce component usage, optimizations that provide memory efficiency with software, and agreements with alternative suppliers. Large buyers like Apple are trying to gain priority through prepayments, long-term supply contracts, and participation in supplier investments.
Conclusion and timeline
In the short term (6–12 months), upward pressure on memory prices will continue. In the medium term (12–24 months), pressure may ease as additional factory investments and capacity expansions come into play; however, full equilibrium may be delayed if data center demand remains high. The biggest risk for Apple appears to be price increases on the iPhone Pro and high-end Mac models. In Türkiye, the final impact will vary depending on local factors; consumers can manage the cost by focusing on caution, timing, and using alternative channels.
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