25 Percent Tax from Trump to Those Doing Business with Iran

Changing Balances in the US-Iran Financial Environment and Its Repercussions for Türkiye

While the new US tax policy on trade with Iran creates direct effects on global supply chains, the volatility in exchange rates leaves deep scars on energy markets and restructuring global trade strategies. This move is not only a step in economic relations between the two countries; It stands out as a signal of a period in which the balance of power in the world economy is repositioned. For Türkiye, this process may create new opportunities and risks in export-oriented sectors. Below, we delve into the details of the political decision, its likely impacts, and concrete action recommendations for Türkiye.

Side Effects and Market Expectations: What Does the Scope of Customs Duty Bring?

First, a 25 percent tariff statement could significantly increase the cost of trade to Iran. This increase will increase the costs of countries trading with Iran and may cause the other party to look for alternative suppliers. In addition, the fact that the USA describes this decision as “permanent” and “final” indicates the future continuity and security of the policy. While this situation reduces uncertainties for international investors and the business world, it may also pave the way for new strategic pairings in some markets.

Energy Markets and Geopolitical Tensions: What Road Map Is There for Türkiye?

Iran is considered a major player in global energy supply. The 25 percent tax may trigger cost pressure in energy trade, which may bring about price fluctuations in oil and natural gas derivatives. While Türkiye prioritizes energy security, it may have to take rapid action on alternative energy sources and supply lines. In this context, redirection agreements, fuel diversity policies and incentives supporting domestic production will play a critical role.

Transformation in Supply Chains: Strategic Opportunities and Risks for Türkiye

While customs duty triggers normalization processes, the following topics come to the fore for Türkiye’s medium and long-term competitiveness:

• Export-Oriented Production: To balance costs, SMEs and large companies may shift to by-products and alternative markets.
• Alternative Supplier Network: Cooperation with manufacturers in China, the Middle East and Europe can be strengthened.
• Financial Strategies: Insurance and hedging mechanisms can be expanded to manage foreign exchange risk.
• R&D and Innovation Incentives: Innovative solutions and productivity increase can be targeted to strengthen domestic production.

Concrete Action Plan for Exporters and Importers

For businesses in Türkiye, these steps can help achieve profitable positions even in the current uncertainty:

1. Risk Management Inventory: To clearly determine which products are subject to taxes and to remodel the cost structure.
2. Multi-Market Strategy: Developing collective marketing and logistics solutions for target markets outside Iran.
3. Logistics and Supply Chain Optimization: Search for efficiency in ship and air cargo costs to reduce transportation costs.
4. Financial Protection: Providing protection against foreign exchange risk with derivative products and fixed exchange rate methods.
5. Regulation and Compliance: Coordinated work with affiliated institutions to comply with new tax policies.

Decision Moment Supported by Data and Analytics: 6-Stage Model

In this process, we propose a applicable 6-stage model for decision makers:

• Situation Analysis: To measure the current trade volume and risks between Iran and Türkiye.
• Business Prioritization: Identifying the sectors that will be most affected by the tax impact.
• Scenario Planning: Creating alternative plans in case the tax increases, remains constant or decreases.
• Evaluation of Options: Making comparative analyzes in terms of cost, second markets and logistics.
• Execution: Creating an operational roadmap for rapid implementation of targeted strategies.
• Monitoring and Correction: Monitoring market reaction and redefining actions when necessary.

Future Perspectives: Long-Term Opportunities for Türkiye

Such international policy moves can strengthen Türkiye’s position in restructuring global trade networks. Investments that increase production efficiency, combined with domestic technologies and innovative solutions, increase Türkiye’s export market diversity and competitiveness. Additionally, businesses can minimize foreign exchange and market risks thanks to financial instruments and insurance solutions.

Economic Review: Updated Assessment Backed by Data

In the light of recent data, the impact of tax policies on international trade reveals itself with a few basic indicators:

• Supply Chain Flexibility: The desire of companies to turn to alternative carrier and manufacturer networks is increasing.
• Price Extremes: The increase in volatility in energy and intermediate goods prices may be reflected in final consumer prices.
• Workplace Investments: Some investment decisions may be postponed or changed as risk perception changes.

Result: Strategic Preparation and Proactive Management

The most critical point for Türkiye in this process is to provide financial flexibility that manages flexibility and risks in restructured supply chains. Exporting and importing businesses need to make fast, smart and data-driven decisions to minimize the effects of current tax policy. This not only reduces costs, but also enables Türkiye to gain a more solid and durable position in global trade networks. The recommended road map for relevant actors can be summarized as follows: – Coordination between stakeholders should be established for rapid information flow and decision support in times of crisis. – Emergency action plans should be put into effect at the business level in order to adapt to tax changes. – Alternatives should be developed in energy and logistics supplies. – Hedging and insurance products should be used effectively to minimize financial risks. – For long-term competitive advantage, R&D and domestic production incentives should be increased and optimization studies should be carried out to balance quality and cost. In this dynamic environment, Türkiye can achieve a strong position in global trade networks with strategic alignment and rapidly implemented solutions. The essential thing for market actors is to adopt a proactive approach in the face of changing rules and to achieve long-term sustainability goals by going beyond short-term actions.