Discussions about the future of warfare present a bipolar picture: on one hand, the dominance of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and artillery systems; on the other, the resurgent importance of stealth fighter jets. However, nearly 35 years of conflict experience show that neither UAVs nor stealth aircraft can fully replace a consistently high-performing and cost-effective weapon system—namely, low-altitude cruise missiles.
Two Conflicts, Two Different Narratives: Ukraine and Iran-Israel
Two major recent conflicts have fueled two conflicting narratives about the future of war:
1. The Rise of UAVs (Russia-Ukraine)
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was initially halted by artillery and heavy infantry weapons (particularly MANPADS and Javelin missiles). As the war dragged on and expensive ammunition ran low, unmanned systems came to the fore. This technology, which was first developed amateurishly under ISIS leadership in the 2010s, evolved into powerful, single-use, and multi-purpose attack drones in Ukraine.
By 2025, UAVs had come to dominate land and sea warfare in the conflict, absorbing the brunt of the casualties themselves. These systems were even used to strike Russia’s valuable strategic bomber fleet far beyond Ukraine’s borders. For a time , UAVs seemed like relics of the future, while traditional weapons systems were seen as legacies of the past.
2. The Rebirth of Stealth Aircraft (Iran-Israel)
The Iran-Israel conflict in June 2025 painted a picture that contradicted this UAV-centric narrative. Early in the conflict, rapid and precise strikes carried out by stealth F-35 fighter jets allowed Israel to fly effectively and unrivaled over Iran. By striking Iranian military targets day and night, Israel undermined Iran’s ability to wage war.
The conflict came to a swift end when American B-2 stealth bombers inflicted damage on Iran’s critical nuclear facilities. This situation once again demonstrated the indispensable role of stealth and advanced fighter jets in neutralizing the enemy’s most valuable and hard-to-defend targets.
The Covert Star of the War: The Low-Altitude Cruise Missile
None of these competitive narratives fully captures a capability that has played a key role in nearly every conflict since 1990: the low-altitude cruise missile and its modern counterpart, the low-altitude attack unmanned aerial vehicle.
Why Are Cruise Missiles Indispensable?
- Survivability: By flying at low altitudes, cruise missiles can evade detection by enemy radars and avoid attacks from traditional air defense systems, which typically require a line-of-sight to the target.
- Cost-Effectiveness: Although cruise missiles are expensive, their high rate of success in rapidly disrupting air defense, command and control (C2), and other critical targets more than justifies their cost. Neutralizing these high-value targets paves the way for subsequent, less expensive, and more traditional attack methods.
- Geographical Advantage: Geography and physics work in these weapons’ favor. Since tens of thousands of air defense systems would be required to protect even a medium-sized country, cruise missiles limit the use of cost-effective air defense systems.
- Long Range and Surprise Launch: The U.S.’s famous Tomahawk and its counterparts from other countries (the U.K., France, Russia) have been successfully used at the onset of conflicts. In particular, the fact that the U.S., Russia, and China are investing in submarine-launched cruise missiles demonstrates that the element of surprise provided by submarines has made these missiles the ultimate conventional deterrent.
UAVs Are Slow-Flying Cruise Missiles
In fact, one-way attack UAVs such as the Iranian-made Shahed, the Ukrainian-made FP-1, and the Israeli-made Harpy are systems that use propellers instead of turbofans and are slower than cruise missiles. However, considering their core functions (long range, precision strikes from low altitude) and their devastating effects in conflicts, they are essentially no different from their slower cruise missile counterparts.
Over the past 35 years, low-altitude cruise missiles and attack UAVs have become an inescapable reality on the battlefield, inflicting serious damage on military targets, command and control centers, ammunition depots, and critical infrastructure such as energy facilities.
First-Strike Advantage
Whatever the future of warfare may hold, low-altitude cruise missiles and attack UAVs will always be the first to strike. The rapidly declining costs of these systems and the lowering barriers to acquisition will further enhance the importance of these advantages.
Russia’s ability to cripple Ukraine’s power grid and Ukraine’s ability to devastate Russian oil production are concrete indicators of what to expect in future conflicts. This unique combination of high survivability, effectiveness, and cost-effectiveness will ensure that cruise missiles and attack UAVs remain the first strike option for the United States and other major military powers.
