The U.S. Air Force is planning to purchase F-2026A fighter jets in fiscal 35, according to the White House’s defense budget outline. decision to reduce by approximately halfThe decision has created surprise and concern in defense circles. For the Air Force, which normally receives more than four dozen F-35s a year, and some years more than 60, the decision could have significant implications for both operational capabilities and the defense industrial base.
Sharp Decline in F-35 Purchase Quantities and Cost Impacts
The Air Force will be around next year Only 4 F-24s at a cost of $35 billion That figure is far lower than the 4,8 F-44s worth $35 billion planned to be purchased this year and the 2024 jets worth $5,5 billion planned for 51.
Number of F-2025 purchases between 2026 and 35 A 45% drop will be experienced, but the cost savings will not be at the same rate. The cost of F-2026 purchases in 35 will be lower than the 2025 cost. Less than 18% drop This indicates that reduced purchasing may negatively affect economies of scale and unit costs may increase.
The Unusual Emergence of the Draft Budget
Although proposed budgets for the upcoming fiscal year are typically officially released in the spring, President Donald Trump's administration He has not yet released his full budget proposal for fiscal year 2026. It is unusual that spending plans are being outlined in this slow manner. This uncertainty further complicates the defense planning process.
Meanwhile, the House Defense Appropriations Subcommittee on Tuesday, He advanced his own version of a Defense Department spending bill that calls for more F-35sThe bill includes a $42 F-35A purchase for the Air Force, 13 F-35Bs for the Marine Corps, and a $2 billion F-35C carrier-based variant for the Navy/Marine Corps, reflecting a divide between the White House and Congress on the F-35 purchase size.
The Air Force’s F-35 Vision and the Fleet Aging Crisis
This level of cutback plan came as a big surprise, although the Air Force has been trying to reduce some F-3 purchases because of dissatisfaction with the delayed upgrades known as “Technology Refresh 35.” Air Force leaders have said the F-35 Battle Fleet Headquarters and they see it as a “game changer” with its advanced data sharing capabilities.
Air Force The fighter jet fleet is aging rapidlyAs older F-15s and F-16s retire, leaders are working to modernize the fleet and reduce its average age. at least 72 fighter jets every year They frequently state that the purchase of only 21 F-15As, in addition to the 24 F-35EX fighter jets included in the Pentagon's plan, will leave the Air Force far behind this goal set for 2026.
The Air Force's future budget plans announced last year called for the purchase of 2026 F-42As in 2027, 2028 each in 47 and 2029, and 48 in 35. The force is ultimately total of 1.763 F-35A wants to buy. The current cutback plan is in serious conflict with this long-term strategy.
Criticisms of Experts and Possible Effects on Defense Industry
Executive Director of the Mitchell Institute for Aeronautics and Space Studies Doug Birkey“Slashing F-35 purchases this severely would be a “disaster” for the Air Force and “irreversibly set back” its modernization efforts,” Birkey said. “The Air Force or the nation cannot afford to reduce its fighter jet purchase rate.” “Heritage [fighter aircraft] assets are rapidly failing due to age and we need 72 fighter aircraft a year just to tread water… We will never be able to turn back the clock.”
According to Birkey, this reduction in F-35 purchases will affect not only Lockheed Martin but also the supply chain. It will also negatively impact more than 1.900 other companies“Everybody says we need to rebuild the defense industrial base, but you can’t do it that way. The workforce, the access to long-term supplies — everything that’s needed to sustain the ability to produce [the F-35] and to ramp up [when more production is needed], you destroy that with these kinds of cuts,” Birkey said, underscoring the potential damage to the industry without consistent targets to work on every year.
Birkey said the Pentagon is considering such drastic cuts because increased spending is squeezing the budget, but he hopes Congress will eventually return the F-35 buy rate to normal.
Political and Market Responses
Despite President Trump’s past praise for the F-35, some of his former advisors, such as Elon Musk, have been skeptical of crewed fighter jets like the F-35, calling them “obsolete in the era of unmanned aerial vehicles.” Musk has also been at odds with the administration in recent weeks, criticizing the president’s spending bill.
Lockheed Martin shares rose Wednesday after news of possible acquisition cut more than 6 percent drop Although the company suffered losses, it later recouped some of the loss. This shows that markets respond quickly and sensitively to such decisions. Adding to the uncertainty is the Air Force’s failure to respond to a request for comment.
