Reports that the White House may suspend plans to renew the Air Force’s fleet of airborne target-indicating aircraft have drawn attention in defense circles in Washington. Amid the uncertainty, senior defense officials have in recent weeks emphasized the indispensable role of existing airborne platforms in the Defense Department’s broader target-tracking architecture.
The Pentagon has been intensively exploring the possibility of shifting some of the moving target indicator (MTI) missions traditionally performed by aircraft to satellites in recent years. The Space Force and the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) are conducting studies and launching prototype satellites to thoroughly evaluate the technical feasibility and strategic value of space-based MTI solutions.
While the potential for space-based MTI capabilities is being studied, the Air Force is simultaneously pursuing efforts to modernize its current air-based target tracking capabilities. In this context, plans are being pursued to replace the aging E-3 Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) fleet with more capable Boeing-built E-7 Wedgetail aircraft. The E-7 is seen as a short-term bridge solution to the Department of Defense’s future target tracking architecture, and the Air Force plans to purchase the first two Wedgetail prototypes as early as 2028.
But news has cast a shadow over these modernization efforts as the White House and Pentagon finalize their fiscal year 2026 budget plans. President Donald Trump’s administration is reportedly considering canceling the E-7 purchase, Aviation Week reported. This potential cancellation raises serious questions about the Air Force’s future air-based target tracking capabilities.
The Air Force has yet to officially confirm the news, but a spokesperson told Defense News that the service “continues to work with the Department of Defense (OSD) on the E-2026A Wedgetail program as part of the development of the fiscal year 7 budget request.” The statement highlights the ongoing uncertainty over the future of the program.
Defense Officials Emphasize Importance of Air Layer
At several recent statements and events in the Washington, D.C. area, senior defense officials have strongly emphasized the strategic importance of a layered airborne mobile target indication (AMTI) capability that includes both air and space assets. This emphasis has become particularly evident as the Space Force and NRO continue their analysis of space-based MTI.
Lt. Gen. Shawn Bratton, assistant deputy for strategy, plans, programs and requirements for space operations, said Thursday that space-based MTI demonstrations have not yet provided definitive data that will inform program decisions, but early indications support a hybrid architecture. “We think there’s some synergy right now in having both types of this capability, but we’re really waiting for some hard engineering data to understand what we can see from space and how good it will be,” Bratton said at a virtual event hosted by the Mitchell Institute. While these statements reflect interest in the potential of space-based MTI, they also suggest that existing air-based capabilities shouldn’t be ignored.
Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin also told the House Appropriations Committee on May 6 that while satellites can provide basic sensing capabilities, they are not yet ready to take over the entire AMTI mission. General Allvin emphasized that airborne platforms such as the E-7 Wedgetail and the current E-3 AWACS remain essential. This statement clearly demonstrates the Air Force’s commitment to air-based target tracking capabilities in the near term.
The Defense Department needs a layered approach to tracking all kinds of advanced threats, from undersea sensors to detecting enemy submarines, remote-controlled weapons, aircraft and satellites, U.S. Northern Command Commander General Gregory Guillot told the Senate Armed Services Committee at a hearing on May 13. That layered approach covers a wide spectrum, from the seabed to space, Guillot said.
General Guillot also noted that the future Golden Dome capability will play a key role in tracking ground and air moving targets, which he called the “domain awareness layer.” This advanced missile defense and defeat architecture, advocated by the Trump administration, envisions the integration of both ground- and air-based AMTI capabilities.
Space-Based MTI Studies Continue, But Uncertainties Remain
The Space Force and the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) continue to work closely together to develop space-based MTI capability, but have been largely secretive about which satellites and other prototypes have been launched to demonstrate this capability.
NRO Director Chris Scolese acknowledged that his agency has launched some GMTI (ground moving target indicator) prototype satellites in the past. General Guillot noted at this week’s hearing that there are currently “several” AMTI prototypes in orbit. The Air Force is expected to have an operational space-based MTI capability by the early 2030s.
Lt. Gen. Bratton declined to provide further details about the AMTI demonstrations, but said the results of all the analyses will help answer fundamental questions such as, “How good is this capability from space?” and “How does it fit with existing AMTI capabilities that the Navy and Air Force use?” These questions reflect critical uncertainties about how space-based MTI will integrate with existing air-based systems and under what circumstances it will outperform.
Former Air Force Secretary Warns of Technical Challenges and Risks
Former Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall noted in his assessment to Defense News that there are significant technical challenges surrounding the transition to satellites for MTI missions. These include fundamental questions about satellite power systems and the ability of a satellite sensor to effectively penetrate cloud cover. Additionally, satellites need to be more resilient to enemy attack.
Kendall emphasized that a fully space-based MTI architecture would likely take years and that these systems would not be ready in time to retire the E-3 AWACS fleet, creating the risk of a significant capability gap. This warning makes the strategic gap that could be created by potentially canceling the Air Force’s E-7 Wedgetail purchase all the more significant.
“We’re trying to get a lot of that functionality into space, but it’s going to take some time and there are some technical challenges with that,” Kendall said, adding that Wedgetail is a critical component of the Air Force’s near-term planning. “There’s a fair amount of urgency to get the E-7 fielded,” he said, reflecting concerns that current air-based target tracking capabilities could be inadequate against modern threats.
As a result, the White House’s potential cancellation of the E-7 Wedgetail purchase has created significant uncertainty about the future U.S. air-based target tracking capabilities. Recent statements from defense officials have emphasized the importance of a layered MTI architecture that includes both air and space assets, while indicating that space-based solutions are not yet mature and that existing air platforms remain critical. The future of the E-7 program is critical to the U.S. strategy to maintain air superiority and target tracking capabilities.
