Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine has banned arms exports. However, given the growing debate and international demand, Ukraine is expected to lift these bans. In October 2024, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said that some countries are interested in purchasing Ukrainian-made missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and other weapons, and that the possibility of resuming arms exports is being considered. However, it was noted that this decision should be taken collectively by the state leadership.
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) and Weapons Exports
UAVs have become a critical tool for Ukraine at this stage of the war. UAVs are effective against both enemy manpower and armored vehicles and require mass production. However, some manufacturers in Ukraine state that they are not producing at full capacity and that the government does not have the financial resources to purchase all the necessary weapons systems. Therefore, UAV manufacturers have begun to explore export opportunities in order to increase their production capacity.
Financial Contributions of Exports
In Ukraine's defense industry, it is stated that companies can produce weapons worth $20 billion per year, but the government can only buy $6 billion. It is thought that the export of UAVs could bring Ukraine an annual income of up to $20 billion. Exports will not only increase production capacity, but also provide financial resources to accelerate R&D work.
Demand for Eastern Europe and the Baltic Countries
Without the ability to export Ukraine’s weapons, especially its drones, manufacturers have begun to move capacity out of Ukraine, particularly to Eastern Europe and the Baltics. This could accelerate if the export ban continues for an extended period. Demand for Ukrainian-designed products, which are cheaper than their European and U.S. competitors, continues to grow, especially in times of war.
Resumption of Exports Under Control
The head of the National Union of Defense Industries of Ukraine, Serhiy Honcharov, stated that the resumption of arms exports should be carried out only with strict monitoring processes. This process should not include sales to Russia's allies and should be directed only to reliable allied countries. The Ukrainian government should start exploring export opportunities as soon as possible in order to be able to take part in the international arms market.
Limited Export and Sales Strategies
The commander of the Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces, Vadym Sukharevsky, stated that it would be safer to open arms exports only to a limited number of countries. Sales strategies should be developed and the types of weapons suitable for export should be determined. It is also stated that a list should be prepared of which countries can buy these weapons.
It seems logical for Ukraine to resume arms exports, but it should be carefully monitored and only targeted to reliable allies. This strategy would strengthen Ukraine’s defense industry and increase the country’s production capacities.
