Taiwan has officially designated 2027 for the first time as a critical year for a possible invasion of China. In a report published on March 18, the Taiwanese Ministry of Defense provided details of war drills simulating a large-scale attack by the Chinese Army. According to the information in this report, Taiwan’s most comprehensive military drill, the Han Kuang Exercise, will be held for 10 days this year. This statement is being interpreted as an indication that Taiwan’s tensions with China are increasing day by day. Although Taiwanese officials emphasize that this historical determination is not a definitive invasion prediction, this step reveals that Taiwan is undergoing a significant change in its defense strategy.
Taiwanese Defense Minister Wellington Koo stated that the 2027 year was only intended to simulate future possibilities. Koo said that such exercises always focus on a time frame of one to two years because the acquisition of new weapons and training processes take time. However, Taiwan's decision to set a year in this way can be perceived as an important strategic message to domestic and foreign public opinion. This development indicates that Taiwan's efforts to increase its defense budget may accelerate further.
Political and Military Tensions in Taiwan
The announcement of 2027 could also have implications for domestic politics in Taiwan. In particular, the Taiwanese government could increase pressure to further increase defense spending in response to opposition parties’ concerns about rising military spending. Jack Chen, director of Formosa Defense Vision, said setting a target of 2027 could put more pressure on Taiwan’s divided parliament. Chen said this pressure could lead the public and opposition parties to believe that increasing the military budget is urgently needed.
China's Military Plans and the US's Stance
Chinese President Xi Jinping has set 2027 as a critical milestone for the People’s Liberation Army. China aims to establish a “modern army” by that date and become a “global military power” by 2047. Taiwan’s statements come at a time when China is increasing its military pressure on Taiwan. Beijing held two large-scale military exercises around Taiwan last year and regularly sends fighter jets into Taiwanese airspace. Chinese officials see Taiwan as “a territory that must inevitably be reunified” and are increasingly toughening their rhetoric.
The US, while increasing its military support for Taiwan, has not made a clear statement on whether it will intervene militarily if China invades Taiwan. In this period when the US continues its policy of strategic ambiguity, China's increasing displays of force complicate Washington's intervention in Taiwan. Taiwan's reference to 2027 may be an indication that this uncertainty poses an increasingly greater threat to Taiwan.
Taiwan's Military Preparations and Future Perspective
Taiwan has been experiencing one of the most tense periods in its relations with China in recent years. Since the beginning of Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s term, China has increased its military pressure on Taiwan. Beijing frequently violates the air and sea borders around Taiwan, while the Taiwanese government has adopted a tougher stance against China’s military actions. Taiwan’s strategic signal for 2027 can be considered as a response to China’s military plans in the region and as part of its own defense strategy. Taiwan is entering a critical period in its struggle to maintain its sovereignty, as it faces internal and external threats.
Given China’s rapidly growing military power and increasing pressure on Taiwan, Taiwan’s new military preparations could change the balance in the region. It is clearly foreseeable that any military intervention by Beijing against Taiwan would have serious global consequences. Taiwan’s statements regarding 2027 may indicate that this date will hold an important place not only in Taiwan’s defense planning but also in the strategic balances around the world.
