Speaking at a security conference last week, Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans gave important assessments based on Dutch military intelligence. The minister said that Russia could be preparing for a large-scale troop deployment if the war in Ukraine ends with a ceasefire. The statement revived security concerns in Europe and once again highlighted Russia’s growing threat potential.
Russia Prepares to Test Baltic States and NATO
Brekelmans expressed particular concern about Russian President Vladimir Putin's plans to hold large-scale exercises on the border with the Baltic states. The minister noted that it was only recently possible to get a clear idea of whether such exercises were a real military preparation or a threat, based on the experience in Ukraine. Brekelmans said that such large military movements could only be detected a few weeks in advance, and that such preparations pose a serious threat to European security.
NATO and the Role of the Netherlands
Brekelmans, who noted that the Netherlands, as a NATO member state, will be seriously involved in developments in the Baltic Sea region, pointed out that the Netherlands also bears responsibility for the defense of NATO territory. The Netherlands has deployed troops in Lithuania and will send F-35 jets to Estonia at the end of March. This move demonstrates the Netherlands' determination to strengthen NATO's security. NATO membership provides the Netherlands with protection, but also imposes international responsibilities, the minister said.
Russia's Military Capacity Increases
Brekelmans noted that Russia's investments in the war industry are increasing. The Minister, who stated that the Russian economy is largely based on the war industry, expressed concerns about Russia's future military strategies. He stated that Russia could face major internal problems, especially if thousands of soldiers return with social problems such as post-traumatic stress disorder. Russia's increase in military capacity could pose a serious threat to NATO.
Lasting Peace in Ukraine and European Military Readiness
Brekelmans said that the Netherlands is evaluating the security guarantees needed to achieve a “just and lasting peace” in Ukraine. In this context, he stated that the Netherlands should be prepared to participate in European military missions. However, he also noted that such a military mission is not yet on the table. Stating that the US demands that it take more responsibility for Europe’s security, Brekelmans underlined that it is necessary to be prepared, especially for the uncertainties of the Donald Trump era.
Hybrid Attacks and Security Threats
Brekelmans noted that the Netherlands is faced with hybrid attacks every day. The country is struggling with various threats, including cyberattacks on strategic points such as hospitals, seaports and military bases, espionage activities and sabotage. In particular, stealth ships in the North Sea and unidentified drones show the seriousness of the threats the Netherlands faces. Such hybrid attacks create a grey area between war and peace and highlight that the Netherlands is no longer living in complete peace.
Increasing Defense Forces
The Netherlands has decided to significantly increase its defense force. It plans to increase its defense personnel from 74.000 to 100.000 over the next five years, describing the increase as the largest since the end of the Cold War. The minister said that one-third of the new personnel will be assigned as reservists, adding that the military force can be scaled up quickly but also provides flexibility if it needs to be reduced.
The statements of Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans bring the effects of Russia’s increasing threats on Europe and the Netherlands’ security strategies back into focus. After Russia ended the war in Ukraine, possible threats to NATO and hybrid attacks make the Netherlands’ security preparations even more critical. The Netherlands aims to develop a strong military capacity not only as part of NATO but also for its own security. Being prepared for possible future military missions and regional threats will be among the main priorities in ensuring the Netherlands’ security.
