Geoscientist Celal Şengör called Kafa TV YouTube He was a guest on his channel. In the program where the expected Istanbul earthquake was discussed, which districts the earthquake would affect were also evaluated.
Commenting on the expected earthquake, Celal Şengör said, “It looks like it will expand to the east. At that time, we thought that it would break from Silivri to Izmit, this produces a 7.2 earthquake. But this does not mean that this earthquake will stay with him. Right after, it can break the part from Silivri to Tekirdağ. That's what happened in 1766. 7.2 and 7.2, lengths of faults. There may be two in a row. If it breaks in one breath, it can be 7.6-7.8.”
Reminding that the North Anatolian Fault passing through the south of Istanbul is the biggest fault in Turkey, Şengör said, “After the 1999 earthquake, the rupture in the fault stopped at the mouth of the Gulf of Izmit. This has to continue. The place where it is most active is divided into two, it is not so active in the south, the main major activity is in the north,” he said.
Expressing that the rupture at the end of the Izmit Bay will continue into the Marmara, Şengör said the following about the loss of life that may occur in Istanbul:
“In 1999, Prof. Dr. Mustafa Erdik talked about the loss of 50 thousand lives, and it was said that the material damage would be 50 billion dollars. During this conversation, I told them to double these numbers because it would be an incredible disaster.”
“Is there a chance of a tsunami?” to the question, “There is. There may be a tsunami between 5-8 meters. If there is a landslide, it is at the bottom of the Marmara.”
Şengör also talked about how the districts will be affected by the earthquake.
“Will Yeşilköy be demolished? Şengör answered the question, “Yes, violence in Yeşilköy reaches 9 levels. Violence, not greatness. Violence rises to 9 in Tuzla. Military schools need to be moved here. The ground of Yesilkoy is very crippled. There is Bakırköy formation, it is a complete disaster”.
Şengör continued:
“The bottom of the Islands is solid, but it depends on how you make your house, right under your nose because it's fault. Those living in the Islands need to be careful, they need to have their homes checked.
There is a clay layer in Avcılar, the district slides on top of that clay layer. Hunters are already sliding towards the sea all the time.
Fatih, Suriçi -The bottom of Suriçi is neogene, if there are places with Bakırköy formation, those places are crippled. Suriçi is in a much better condition than Avcılar.
Bakirkoy, Florya, Zeytinburnu disaster.
Kemerburgaz is dangerous because it has sand underneath, we can add Kilyos to this.
Küçükçekmece is as dangerous as Zeytinburnu and Avcılar, Silivri is dangerous, Çatalca is not so dangerous if you are inside, it depends on how much inside.
Büyükçekmece is crippled, Esenyurt is relatively better if you are in the north of Küçükçekmece lake.
The high places of Bağcılar are like Avcılar, they are crippled.
Arnavutköy stays in the north, places with sand under it are useless.
Bahçelievler is not very stable.
The bottom of Beylikdüzü is neocene limestones, it is a solid rock made up of limestone, but it depends on how the buildings are built.
Kemerburgaz is very crippled if it's under the sand. Let me tell you the terms; The places with sand underneath are crippled.
Pendik, Suadiye is dangerous.
I cannot guarantee Beşiktaş because there is a lot of filling there.”
Among the most earthquake resistant regions KadıköyŞengör, who was reminded that there are also the districts of Istanbul, replied, “I do not agree, we need to go further north”. You see, "Kadıköy"Fenerbahçe, Kartal and Maltepe all stay in the south, very close to the fault," he said.
DISTRICTS WITH STRONG FLOOR
Noting that the grounds of Beykoz, Anadolu Hisarı, Bebek, Ataşehir, Şişli, Nişantaşı, Ümraniye and Beyoğlu are also sound, Şengör emphasized that the dangers here are due to the unstable buildings.