Does Düzce Earthquake Trigger the Expected Istanbul Earthquake?

Does the Duzce Earthquake Trigger the Expected Istanbul Earthquake?
Does Düzce Earthquake Trigger the Expected Istanbul Earthquake?

The 5,9 magnitude earthquake that occurred in the Gölyaka district of Düzce was felt in a wide area as far as Istanbul, Bolu, Sakarya, Ankara, Kocaeli, Kütahya, Bilecik, Bursa, and İzmir. After the Düzce earthquake, the question came to mind whether the earthquake would trigger the big Istanbul earthquake. Experts warned after the earthquake that occurred in Düzce.

At 04.08, the 5,9 magnitude earthquake, the epicenter of which was in the Gölyaka district of Düzce, caused panic. After the earthquake, earthquake experts made statements one after another.


ITU Faculty Member Prof. Dr. Ziyadin Çakır stated that the earthquake in Düzce would not trigger an expected major Istanbul earthquake and said, “If it had triggered the Istanbul earthquake, it would have immediate effects after the earthquake. The earthquake location is far away," he said.

Çakır continued his explanations about the earthquake as follows: There was an unbroken piece at the Black Sea exit. Most likely this piece of share is broken. However, it is gratifying that no deaths have been reported so far. This region is an extremely bad place in terms of earthquakes. This is a deep fill area, a natural fill area, a flat area.

There is a high probability of destruction in Gölyaka and surrounding villages. There will be aftershocks, but I don't think there will be a bigger earthquake. I advise our citizens not to stay in damaged buildings. Aftershocks can cause buildings to collapse.

I think that there will be damage because there is ground increase in Düzce and the surrounding villages. I hope there are no casualties. We know both the building structures and the ground of the region. Nothing happens to the buildings on the rocky floors. Since the natural fill, namely gravel, and the riverbanks covered with sand, are filled in this way, a 6-magnitude earthquake feels like a 7 here. Therefore, it does more damage.


Stating that many aftershocks will occur after the 5,9 magnitude earthquake that occurred in Düzce, Yıldız Technical University Faculty Member Prof. Dr. Sukru Ersoy used the following statements:

This can take at least 1 week to 10 days. You have to be ready for this. Feeling and destruction are not the same thing. No negative news so far. If it doesn't happen after that, we may have gotten through this. This does not mean that we can get rid of the earthquake reality. This is not the expected Istanbul earthquake precursor. We are expecting a magnitude 7 earthquake in Marmara. Further east.


Geological Engineer Şerif Barış made the following statements about the earthquake: It was a surprise because it was a place we never expected. The magnitude 5.9-6 is quite unsettling. I don't think there will be any damage in cities and towns, there may be damage in villages. In the earthquake there, the fault lines must have discharged the tension. It is really the first time I have seen such a medium-sized earthquake after two major earthquakes. Turkey is in the Alpine-earthquake belt, so we always have to act as if there will be an earthquake and we have to be ready. It was probably from shallow earthquakes.


İTÜ Faculty Member Okan Tüysüz spoke as follows about the earthquake: We experienced two major earthquakes on 17 August and 12 November. Especially on August 17, it came to the vicinity of Gölyaka, which we call the Karadere fault, and from there it broke all the way to the Marmara. There was an expectation that there would be two earthquakes in the east and west.

The 5.9 earthquake today is an earthquake that occurred at the tip of the fault that broke on August 17. It's a pretty shallow earthquake. Of course, being shallow is the factor that makes the earthquake feel intensely on the surface. 6 is a devastating earthquake. Considering that the ground is not good, there is an expectation of damage in the area. Fortunately, no loss of life or significant damage is mentioned.

An earthquake that can be considered a surprise. It was predicted that an earthquake of this magnitude would not occur. The easternmost part of the earthquake on 17 August was broken.

This can be assumed as a triggered earthquake. We do not expect a larger earthquake in the region. 6 major earthquakes. If you remember, Istanbul was very shaken when the Düzce earthquake struck. Considering the shallowness, bad ground and the magnitude of the earthquake, it is likely to be felt in many provinces.


Marmara University Faculty Member Prof. Dr. Cemalettin Şahin used the following statements regarding the earthquake: A 5.9 earthquake is not a big earthquake. It doesn't destroy buildings. If our buildings are collapsing in 5.9, that's what we should be asking. AFAD conducted an exercise in the past few days. These are very important. In such cases, injuries usually occur, such as falling objects, running away, jumping from a height.

The region we call Düzce Plain consists of alluvial soil. We also build buildings on these lands. We are sitting on soft earth. We have to get used to living with earthquakes in this geography. The important thing is to be cautious, to build solid buildings. Otherwise, there will be no building destruction in earthquakes of this magnitude.

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