While domestic markets started to trade again after the Eid holiday, the weakness in global markets during the closed period caused the index to start the week in a negative tone. Similarly, the decline in EUR/USD parity to 1,00 and Fitch's downgrade caused the upward trend in USD/TL to accelerate, while the exchange rate closed the day significantly above the technically important 17,34 level. On the macroeconomic data side, although the market effect is limited, we saw that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate decreased by 0,3 points to 10,9% in May. The US CPI figure, which was the most important topic of the week, reached 9,1% on an annual basis and continued its strong upward trend, keeping the risks to growth in the presence of interest rate hikes. In this context, we expect the volatility/pressure in the markets to continue for a while.
USD/TL: When the downward revision of Fitch's credit rating and the deepening negative real interest rate are added to the global appreciation in the dollar, we see that the pressure on the TL has increased significantly. We can say that closing above 17,34 technically spoils the short-term outlook. On the other hand, the upward trend of inflation in the USA supports the perception that the Fed will continue to increase interest rates. Considering that the CBRT is not expected to make any changes in interest rates, TL continues to lack meaningful support from the monetary policy side.
Borsa İstanbul: BIST-100 index, which started the day with a weak tone due to the weakness abroad, closed with a minus 1%. Technically, staying above 2405 points support mitigates downside risks, but the lack of a catalyst to gain momentum in the markets and weakness abroad do not allow the outlook to improve significantly. In the short term, we see 2360, 2390, 2405, 2420, 2460 point levels as important points.
BIST-30 August futures VIOP contract
BIST-2645 contracts, which closed the day at 30 points, stand out as 2630, 2610 and 2600 support, while 2680, 2700, 2750 and 2800 levels can be followed above.
USD/TL VIOP contract for July futures
USD/TL futures contracts, which closed the day at 17,7080, can be viewed as 17,80, 17,95 and 18,00 resistance points. 17,60, 17,40 and 17,25 stand out as support levels.
Source: ÜNLÜ & Co
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