While USD/TL currency protected deposits exceeded the level of 20 for the first time since December 15.1, when it was announced, Turkey's CDSs again approached the record above 700 basis points. The bankers drew attention to the global risk aversion and Turkey's current account deficit and stated that the TL should depreciate further against the dollar.
After a break of four and a half months yesterday, the dollar/TL, which exceeded the level of 15, saw 15,21 this morning. Foreign banks had warned that the stability in exchange rates provided by the Central Bank's sale of reserves was temporary.
While the concerns about the economic policies, especially the exchange rate, in which the public determines the direction, continue, the dollar/TL broke the 14,50-15 range, which has been trading for the first time for the last two months, as global interest rate hikes triggered risk aversion.
While the dollar/TL exceeded 20 for the first time since 15 December, traders consulted by Reuters predict that the TL should depreciate more against reserve currencies such as the dollar, otherwise it will be more difficult to maintain the current policies.
Dollar/TL started this morning with 15,21. Dollar/TL had exceeded 20 on December 2021, 15, when the last currency protected deposit (KKM) was announced. Dollar/TL tested the level of 11 on March 14.9950 at the beginning of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and could not exceed the level of 15 with the foreign exchange sales of the Central Bank (CBRT).
While TL depreciates by nearly 1% against the dollar today, the depreciation of the last month is equal to the 2,5% depreciation experienced in the last three days.
In similar currencies, more significant losses are seen between 7-10 percent in the last month. The main reason for the losses is the global interest rate hikes, especially in the USA, and the global risk aversion to become more evident.