Human population with the 21st century; its momentum increased and increased even more. The momentum in the population growth can be demonstrated by good interpretation of demographic data. (Demography means demography. It is the science that examines the structure, condition and dynamic characteristics of the population in the country. It is made up of the Greek words demos and graphein. Studies on births, deaths, migrations and aging are done by this branch of science.)
It is useful to examine the sociodemographic situation together with demography. (Features such as age, gender, ethnic group, religion, profession, education, marital status are called sociodemographic characteristics of the person.)
According to the World Population Forecasts of the UN (United Nations), the world population, which was 2020 billion in 7,8, will reach 2030 billion in 8,6, 2040 billion in 9,3, 2050 billion in 9,8 and 2100 in 11,2. Will reach XNUMX billion.
Until 2040, the world population is projected to increase by 1,1% annually on average.
(BETWEEN 2020-2040, IN 20 YEARS, THE POPULATION IN THE WORLD WILL INCREASE BY 1,5 BILLION.)
Turkey Statistical Institute (TSI), "Address Based Population Registration System 2018 Results' is based on Turkey's population, according to 2018 the previous year, 1 million 193 thousand an increase of 357 persons was 82 million 3 thousand 882 people.
So at the beginning of 2020, Turkey's population is approximately 83 million.
Istanbul Turkey of residence 18,4% of the population was 15 million 67 thousand 724 people with the province still has the most population.
This was followed by Ankara with 5 million 503 thousand 985, İzmir with 4 million 320 thousand 519, Bursa with 2 million 994 thousand 521 and Antalya with 2 million 426 thousand 356. Bayburt, on the other hand, was recorded as the province with the least population with 82 thousand 274 people.
Turkey Statistical Institute (TSI), according to the Population and Housing Survey for the year 2011, the number of households in Turkey, 19 million 481 thousand 678, while the average household size was 3,8
.
In our country, it is calculated that the approximate number of houses in 2020 is 23 million.
The average household size was 3,57. (Household Size = Number of Population / Number of Households)
Building Usage, Housing Sales and Number of Houses Added to Stock between 2013-2018
Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) According to the calculation we made from the data, the number of flats in stock has increased by more than 6 million in the last 1 years.
According to the data of the Ministry of Environment and Urbanization, TOKI has built 20 thousand houses in the last 888 years.
Between the years 2000-2020, that is, in the last 20 years, approximately 10 million houses were built in our country according to the data.
If you go out of a total of 23 million households in Turkey, the number of 0-15 year-old building was approximately 43,5%.
Since the life in the city is around 82%, there is a stock of approximately 5 million residences waiting in the urban transformation potential.(There are 18 million 860 thousand residences in the cities.)
If appropriate mechanisms are developed, there is a potential for 5 million residential renovation / construction (urban transformation).
Turkish Statistical Institute (TSI)'S, for our Turkey Population Projections 2018-2080 dataIn the coming years, our construction industry Construction of Mechanical Installation shows how it will take shape.
Namely; In recent years, Turkey's population structure changes occurring as a result of the need and Turkey Statistical Institute Revision policy is renewed in accordance with population projections. In this context, based on the results of the Address Based Population Registration System (ADNKS) in 2017, new population projections were produced according to three different scenarios, one of which is the main scenario, including different fertility and migration assumptions. This news release includes the main scenario results based on the assumption that the current trends in demographic indicators will continue.
Of Turkey's population it is expected to exceed 2040 million in 100.
(2020-2040, 20 YEARS IN THE POPULATION OF 17 MILLION INCREASE our TURKEY.)
current trends in demographic indicators, if continued, according to ABPRS results 2017 to 80 million 810 thousand 525 persons of the population of Turkey, in 2023, 86 million 907 thousand 367 people, while the 2040yıl is expected to reach 100 million 331 thousand 233 people. Our population will increase by 2069 and reach its highest value with 107 million 664 thousand 79 people. The population of the country, which is predicted to decrease from this year, will be 2080 million 107 thousand 100 people in 904.
It also Turkey, population decline is expected after 2069 years.
While Istanbul was 2020 million at the beginning of 16, the population of Istanbul will reach 2040 million in 20. There will be an increase of 20% in 12,5 years.
(2020-2040, IN 20 YEARS, THE POPULATION OF OUR ISTANBUL WILL INCREASE BY 4 MILLION.)
However, according to the projections, there will be a contraction in the construction sector in 2020, 2021 and 2022. Investors take / take positions accordingly.
In our country, in 2023, the population of 2017 provinces will increase while the population of 68 provinces will decrease compared to the 13 ADNKS results. There will be no change in the ranking of the first five provinces with the highest population. Accordingly, in 2023, Istanbul will have a population of 16,3 million, Ankara 6,1 million, İzmir 4,6 million, Bursa 3,2 million and Antalya 2,7 million.
In our country, life expectancy at birth increases and our population continues to age.
The median age, which is an important indicator of the age structure of the population, is expected to be 2018 in 32, 2023 in 33.5, 2040 in 38.5, 2060 in 42.3 and 2080 in 45.
The proportion of the population aged 65 and over, defined as the elderly population, is predicted to be 2018% in 8.7, 2023% in 10.2, 2040% in 16.3, 2060% in 22.6 and 2080% in 25.6.
SUMMARY;
- Working age population rate 2023% in 67.2, 2040% in 64.4,In 2080 it will be 58.7%.
- The proportion of the population in the 15-64 age group in working age 2018% in 67.8, 2023% in 67.2, 2040% in 64.4It is expected to be 2060% in 60.4 and 2080% in 58.7.
- As a child population 0-14 age defined The ratio of the population in the group is 2018% in 23.5, 2023% in 22.6, 2040% in 19.3It is projected to be 2060% in 16.9 and 2080% in 15.7.
IN THE LIGHT OF THESE DATA, TURKEY FORECASTS FOR 2040 ON THE YEAR REVIEW If we are in;
a- Average household size in 2020 is 3,57,In 2040 average household size To 3,03 will fall.
(THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE IN THE HOUSE WILL DECREASE IN 20 YEARS)
b- While the approximate population in 2020 was 83 million,In 2040 yaklaşık 100 million It is predicted to be.
(POPULATION WILL INCREASE 20 MILLION IN 17 YEARS)
c- In 2020, the number of residences was 23 million,In 2040 yaklaşık 33 million It is predicted to be.
(20 MILLION HOUSES MUST BE PRODUCED IN 10 YEARS)
d- The number of residences in 2020 will be 23 million by 2040. 5 million urban It is indispensable for it to be transformed.
(THERE IS A HOUSE THAT NEEDS 20 MILLION URBAN TRANSFORMATIONS IN 5 YEARS)
AS A RESULT:
Data Bases in Turkey in 2040 that in mind;
Until 2040, we see that 10 million new houses should be built and urban transformation of 5 million existing houses should be provided..
WHILE 20 MILLION NEW HOUSES ARE PRODUCED IN THIS PERIOD OF 15 YEARS, IF WE PRODUCE THIS PRODUCT IN LOCAL PRODUCTS, OUR INDUSTRY AND ITS SUB-ARMS WILL DEVELOP VERY FAST.
The stronger the construction sector, the more dynamic the country's economy will be and it will continue to grow.
"BECAUSE THE CONSTRUCTION SECTOR HAS DIRECT OR INDIRECT EFFECTS AND CONTRIBUTIONS TO MORE THAN 189 SECTORS."
Our state; By providing the necessary incentives for the use of domestic products in the construction sector, it can be concluded that other sectors will revive. In doing so, credit support, tax support, advertising support, premium support etc. It is riveted with similar incentives.
Our production companies; It is an absolute necessity for them to be in a position to compete with their competitors globally by producing high value added, high brand value, advanced technology and qualified products. While realizing these, a difficult process awaits us. However, we have to do our best as a country to reach the super league in production globally by planning many strategies.
While developed societies leave heavy industry, we enter into heavy industry, determining strategies to compete with other countries in nano technology and producing appropriate products, spreading tourism 365 days to conferences, culture, religion, summer, nature etc. We have to make it effective. It is necessary to use appropriate arguments for thousands of main production items.
Ibni Khaldun says:"GEOGRAPHY IS FATE" It is obvious that the geopolitical region we are in will carry us to contemporary civilizations as development.
(Geography is Destiny; Wherever you are born, you sink into the dirt and rubbish of that place, you wash with the water of that place, and you get scorched with the sun of that place, it will shape the climate of that future. İBN-İ HALDUN)
Considering the data presented other than this;
It is seen that we started to lose our dynamism in our demographic and sociodemographic structures over time. The decrease in the size of the house should be perceived as a change in the concept of family.
The median age, which is an important indicator of the age structure of the population, is expected to be 2018 in 32, 2023 in 33.5, 2040 in 38.5, 2060 in 42.3 and 2080 in 45.
In fact, this data should be described as the disease / virus of the society. Because of Turkey's population it is indicative of an aging society.
The fact that the population of our country will begin to decrease after 2069 means that the aging of the society will double.The decrease in the number of births is an indicator of the decrease in the number of deaths. States that want a young society want more births than deaths. Young society means dynamism.
We have taken the future from our children. For our children who will come after us; Demographic and sociodemographicIt is beneficial to take measures that will ensure its stable structure without damaging its structure.
the next generation of ethnic, cultural, customs and traditions teach us to literally our görevdir.bunu however on a fundamental level of our contemporary civilization Turkey removing our children more effectively, rich, our indispensable to leave a developed country.
The predictions of the world famous political scientist about the 21st century are as follows;
[Geopoliticalfutures (GPF) Founding President and political scientist George Friedman, Turkey stating struggled with currently different problems, "Turkey's same once America's problems experienced by the problems that are living at the moment." said.
Pointing out that many of the technologies used today were first born out of military needs, Friedman noted:
"If Turkey also has to be a political and military power it wants to become a digital power. Without them, there can be no trust and safety. Many technologies arose out of defense technologies. Cameras were developed for satellites. The GPS feature was developed by the American air force to find their way. Technological developments are made by taking inspiration from military systems. "
Friedman's new book "TheNext 100 Years" / "The Next Century" makes some predictions for the 21st century.
- NEW BIGGER OF THE CENTURY:Friedman “21. The "super state" of the century will again be the USA. The European era is closing. The age of America has just begun. The other great power will be Japan. Russia will once again disintegrate. India also does not give hope.
This is not a "first" in China's opening to the world. It will collapse again as before.
What about the new greats of the 21st century?
These are Turkey, Poland and Mexico will be. " says.
George friedman'S eyesight in front of 2050 TURKEY Map
The superpowers of the next century are not China and Russia; Japan, Turkey, Mexico and Poland will be.
Turkey's political influence in the world in 2050 will create an image resembling the Ottoman map.
WAR WITH THE ISLAMIC MILITANTS IS ENDING: The issue of war with Islamist militants, which the US is now addressing, will remain in the depths of history by the 21st century.
RUSSIA AND CHINA: For powers like Russia and China, there is no need to worry in the next century. These countries will experience collapse similar to communism. Leave Russian or Chinese, look to learn Turkish, Japanese, Polish and Mexican languages.
US RELATIONS WITH TURKEY WITH JAPAN will scrap: Towards the end of the century will be a clash between Turkey and the US-Japan alliance. This war will be completely different from the battles with classical weapons that have existed to this day. So there will be a war that looks like science fiction from today. The outcome of this war will determine the course of the 21st century.]
Victor Hugo says: "The future; It is inaccessible to the weak, obscurity for the cowards, and luck for the brave. " He says.
Isn't it a chance for us to act, knowing our past for a good future !!
"HISTORYIS THE CONSISTENT OF THE COIN. "
Veteran Mustafa Kemal ATATÜRK He said; Our ancestors, who founded great states, also had great and extensive civilizations. It is a debt for us to search for it, to examine it and to inform Turkishness and the world. As the Turkish child gets to know his ancestors, he will find strength in himself to do greater things.
In many different processes such as pandemic; It should not be forgotten that we are a society with many superiorities that will turn the global crisis together with all the stakeholders in our country.
(Dear Journalist, thank you very much for the contributions of Mr. Oğuz HAKSEVER.)
(Magic Meetings© article series will continue…)
Semih ÇALAPKULU (Mechanical Engineer)
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