The results of the "Istanbul Vulnerability Map" project conducted by Bimtaş, one of the İBB Affiliates, within the scope of "Combating Covid-19" has been published. Socio-economic fragility was found to be higher in rural neighborhoods than in urban neighborhoods. According to the results of the transportation-related fragility index, the risk was higher in Istanbul's main transportation axes such as E-5 and E-80 and in the neighborhoods where metro lines pass. The neighborhood with the highest risk due to urban density is Başakşehir Ziya Gökalp; The neighborhood with the highest fragility due to spatial spreading risk was Zeytinburnu Beştelsiz.
Supported by the Istanbul Development Agency and carried out by BİMTAŞ, one of the İBB affiliates "Istanbul Vulnerability Map within the Scope of Combating COVID-19" project concluded. Within the scope of the project, IMM Istanbul Statistical Office compiled the data collected from 961 neighborhoods and examined the characteristics of the neighborhoods from their socio-economic status to transportation connections, from urban density to demographic structure. Maps were created under four main headings and twenty-two subtitles. The subtitles used for the creation of the maps were calculated with the equally weighted index model and contributed to the formation of the main titles. In addition, the index scores of the subtitles were calculated and mapped among themselves.
With these maps, it was aimed to identify risky, fragile areas and areas that require urgent intervention, to use resources rationally and optimally in combating the epidemic, to prioritize decision-making city stakeholders on emergency response areas and to contribute to response policies.
The results of the fragility map based on the spatial spreading risk, the socio-economic fragility map, the fragility map due to transportation and the fragility map due to urban density are as follows:
Higher socio-economic risk in rural neighborhoods
In the creation of the socio-economic vulnerability index, indicators of household size, number of households applying for IMM social assistance, number of bank branches, rental housing price level, income level, university graduate rate during the Covid-19 epidemic process, were used. When the results of the socio-economic fragility index are examined, it is seen that the risk of the regions defined as rural neighborhoods is higher than the neighborhoods in the city center. Çatalca, Silivri, Arnavutköy on the European Side; It was determined that the socio-economic risk was high in the neighborhoods of Beykoz, Pendik and Şile on the Anatolian Side. Kadıköy, Ataşehir, Beşiktaş, Bakırköy and Şişli districts have low socio-economic fragility values. Fatih (Arnavutköy), Yunus Emre (Arnavutköy), Atatürk (Arnavutköy), Pirinççi (Eyüpsultan), Şahintepe (Başakşehir), Oklalı (Çatalca), Yavuz Selim (Arnavutköy), Göçbeyli (Pendik), Yayla (Sultangazi), Hicret (Arnavutköy ) neighborhoods were determined as the neighborhoods with the highest socio-economic risk.
Transport-related risk is higher in main transport axes
In the creation of the transportation-related fragility index, the indicators of the number of trips affecting the fragility and epidemic risk, the share of public transport trips in vehicle trips, the bus stop passenger density, the number of disabled passengers, and the number of passengers over 65 were used. According to the results of the transportation-related fragility index, it was observed that the risk of the neighborhoods located on the main transportation axes of Istanbul is high. Fragility values were found to be high especially in the neighborhoods where the European Highway (E-5), the Trans European North South Highway (E-80) and metro lines pass. While the neighborhoods on the European Side are more risky than those on the Anatolian Side, the index values were found to be higher in the districts of Bakırköy, Bahçelievler, Zeytinburnu, Bayrampaşa and Şişli. The neighborhoods with the highest transportation-related fragility are respectively; Mimar Sinan (Üsküdar), Aksaray (Fatih), Esentepe (Şişli), Center (Şişli), Caferağa (Kadıköy), Osmaniye (Bakırköy), Acıbadem (Kadıköy), İçerenköy (Ataşehir), Ünalan (Üsküdar), Topçular (Eyüpsultan).
The low amount of open and green areas increases the risk
The indicators of urban population density, the number of shopping malls, the number of tourist areas, the number of public branches, the number of students per classroom, the number of days established on Sundays, and the commercial area were used in the creation of the urban density index. According to the results of the urban density index, the risk rates of the neighborhoods located in the city center and sub-centers of Istanbul in general were determined to be high. It was noted that the neighborhoods in Bahçelievler, Bağcılar, Esenler, Güngören, Başakşehir, Zeytinburnu, Gaziosmanpaşa and Sultangazi districts where the population is concentrated, urban dynamism is high or there is a trade flow is high. On the European Side, where the service sector and business areas are concentrated in Istanbul, the risk due to urban density was much higher than on the Anatolian Side. This result was also affected by the insufficient amount of open and green areas in some districts on the European Side according to the district population and the size of the district, and the density of residential and commercial areas. The neighborhoods where fragility due to urban density is the highest are; Ziya Gökalp (Başakşehir), Karadeniz (Gaziosmanpaşa), İçerenköy (Ataşehir), Şenlikköy (Bakırköy), Hürriyet (Bahçelievler), Şirinevler (Bahçeliever), Soğanlı (Bahçelievler), İsmetpaşa (Sultangazi), Ahmet Yesevi (Pendik), Cevizli(Maltepe).
In Zeytinburnu Beştelsiz neighborhood with the highest risk of spatial spreading
The risk levels of the inhabitants of the "Life Fit Home" application with the index linked to spatial spreading risk were determined according to the legend levels on the map. The index related to spatial spreading risk was created by calculating the height or low levels of the rate of spreading the epidemic in various regions, predicting that the density of the population living in risky areas would be high. 15 sub-indicators were used to create the index depending on the spatial spread risk. These indicators are the risk intensity of “Hayat Home Fit” practice, the number of family health centers, the number of shopping malls, the number of pharmacies, the number of places of worship, the number of service areas such as cafes, the number of markets, the number of libraries, the number of parks and green areas, the health institution. the number of tourist areas, the number of kindergartens and primary schools, the number of public transportation stops, and the number of commercial areas. It was observed that neighborhoods with high population mobility and density had high fragility. It was determined that the neighborhoods on the European Side are more risky than the Anatolian Side, and the presence of health institutions and organizations on the European Side has an effect on this situation. The neighborhoods with the highest fragility due to spatial spreading risk are respectively; Beştelsiz (Zeytinburnu), Kemalpaşa (Fatih), Kalenderhane (Fatih), Gökalp (Zeytinburnu), İskenderpaşa (Fatih), İsmetpaşa (Sultangazi), Mesihpaşa (Fatih), Barbaros Hayrettin Paşa (Gaziosmanpaşa), Hürriyet (Bahçelievler), Fevzi Çakmak ( Bahçelievler).