Covid-19's Impact on the Economy Will Last At Least One Year

KPMG in Turkey, has researched how it affects the business world Covidien-19. Business representatives taking part in the survey say that at least one year is needed to eliminate the negative impact of the global epidemic on the economy.

KPMG in Turkey, Strategy and Operations Consulting team, 1 - 6 was made with the participation of nearly 250 people from all sectors of Covidien-19 Impact Research between April. The effects of the coronavirus epidemic on the business world and sectors, which started from China in December 2019 and spread all over the world and turned into a pandemic, were investigated. KPMG survey conducted by Turkey's business representatives, also sheds light on the assumptions about the period after the outbreak. Although there are different opinions about the recovery time and shape after Covid-19, the foreseen time is between 3 months and 12+ months. However, a significant contraction in the economy is foreseen.

KPMG in Turkey, Strategy and Operations Consulting Leader and Partner Serkan Ercan's similar to global example in Turkey, different sectors are affected in different degrees of these measures, of some sectors while some have begun to get their share before many of these effects was noted that these effects are subsequently feeling starts. Ercin said, “In order to eliminate the problems experienced due to the decrease of socio-economic mobility, the history of pandemics to be taken under control and subsequent life will be wondered. There are different estimations about the economic recovery that will occur after this process. When we look at the possible recovery scenarios for our country and world economies after Covid-19, we see forecasts that span the period between 3 months and 12+ months and envisage a significant contraction in the economy. On the other hand, we think that these rebounds will differ on the basis of sectors and companies, and that the structures that are prepared for this period, take the right decisions and adapt to the new norm will get out of this process in the best way. ”

The topics from the research are as follows:

88 percent Says 'High Impact'

• 88 percent of respondents-19 Covidien Turkey's economy will affect the opinion highly. 12 percent think that it will have a medium effect.
• More than 80 percent of the surveyed companies in 2020, representatives of more than 3 percent contraction in Turkey's economy mean that the wait. 30 percent foresee a contraction of more than 6 percent, while 19 percent expect growth.

It will last at least a year

• Covidien-19 of Turkey's economy over the ratio of those who for the elimination of the effects that you need at least 12 months, 35 percent of the 19 percent cut that you need at least 3-6 months, 21,9 percent think it will cut the 6-9 months.

Impact on Sectors

• Almost all of the sector representatives state that Covid-19 significantly affects the sector in which they operate. 42 percent of the respondents say that the pandemic affects the sector in which they operate moderately, and 50 percent strongly affects it. 7 percent say that it has no effect or has a low impact.
• While all sectors feel the economic effects of Covid-19, it is seen that the effect is felt relatively less in energy, pharmaceutical, industrial production and chemistry sectors.
• Although recovery expectations on a sector basis are in line with the expectations in the country's economy, the recovery in the industrial production, textile, tourism / out-of-home consumption, energy, construction and food-beverage sectors is expected to be post-2020.

SMEs 95 Percent

• The rate in the SME world, the sector most affected by Covid-19, is pronounced as 95 percent.

Working from Home Halfway

• 58 percent of respondents state that they have switched from home to work to protect all employees from the epidemic. 20 percent say they have just started a white collar home practice. Home-based sectors stand out as education, law, financial services, banking, insurance, retirement and life, energy.

Nobody Is Ready For The Crisis

• In terms of crisis preparedness and crisis management capabilities, companies' turnover sizes seem to be in line with their crisis management capabilities. While the rate of SMEs with procedures and processes for crisis management is 25 percent, it is observed that this rate has increased in parallel with the turnover rate and increased to 10 percent in companies with a turnover higher than 75 million TL.
• The Covid-19 crisis reveals that every sector should take the lead in developing crisis management capabilities, particularly in the media, education, textile, energy, chemistry, financial services and construction sectors.

Companies' Troubles

• When all of the sectors are analyzed, due to Covid-19, companies have the highest access to finance (25 percent), decrease in domestic sales (24 percent), increase in production costs (22 percent) and liquidity shortage (18 percent). declares.

Turnovers will fall

• The participants estimate that Covid-19 will cause their companies to drop by up to 2020 percent in their 40 turnovers, and they will significantly revise their 2020 budgets. 53% of company representatives expect a 2020-2% decrease in turnover in 20, while 36% expect more than 20% decrease. 10 percent do not expect a decrease in turnover. The ratio of those expecting a turnover increase is 1 percent.
• The sectors that Covid-19 will affect most on turnover stand out as tourism / out-of-home consumption, retail / merchandising and private venture capital sectors that expect a decline of up to 2020 percent in 40.

What They Said For Packages

• 43 percent of the respondents find the tax and social security premium deferral support in the packages announced by the government to be highly available and useful. 41 percent find minimum wage support and short-time working allowance highly useful and useful. The loan can use support for deferring principal and interest payments, and the rate of those who find it useful is 27 percent. The rate of access to finance and loan structuring is 21 percent.
• It is understood that the tax and SSI premium postponement and minimum wage support and short-working allowance supports offered within the scope of the Economic Stability Shield package are mostly seen as beneficial by relatively small and medium-sized companies.
• In addition to the supports provided in the Economic Stability Shield package, the scope is expanded and the conditions are improved. Demands for improving credit opportunities provided, long-term deferral in tax and erasing debts, expanding the sectors covered, sector-specific development packages, and employment support that reduce employee costs and expand the scope of the companies stand out.