According to the Transport Sector Outlook 2019 report by KPMG prepare the world economy and trade volume made a difficult with slower growth prospects in the Turkish transportation sector, thanks to its geographical location and the flexibility of the economy's foreign trade will survive 2019 comfortable. However, according to the report, guarantee of efficiency in the sector, innovative technologies are adapting rapidly.
KPMG Turkey prepared by the Transport Sector Outlook series of reports, showing the expected economic slowdown worldwide in 2019 will also affect the transport sector.
According to the report, the fluctuation in foreign exchange rates and oil prices in the last period has put great pressure on the sector. This situation is expected to continue in the upcoming period due to the current global uncertainties.
KPMG Turkey Transport Sector Leader Yavuz Öner, thanks to Turkey transportation and geographical location of the logistics industry and the flexibility of the economy's foreign trade is on the front in the medium term while emphasizing "However, the industry in the long run to keep up with the global competition must perform the conversion in accordance with the development in digital technology, surely," he said .
SITUATION IN THE WORLD
- The Baltic Dry dry load index, a pioneer in terms of global trade, has been shrinking since September.
The World Bank's logistic performance index is also the number one in Germany. Sweden, Belgium, Austria and Japan are followed by Germany, respectively.
- protectionist measures and England's exit from the EU in global trade (Brexit) due to the uncertainty induced economic activity slows down, the volume of trade is losing momentum. For this reason, the transportation and logistics sector around the world in the short-term is a challenging appearance.
The business model in maritime transport is changing from port to port instead from customer to customer.
The ongoing growth trend despite the slowdown in the world economy keeps the demand alive in air transport.
SITUATION IN TURKEY
- Turkish transport and logistics sector followed a fluctuating course in the post-crisis period. In this case, geopolitical developments and the performance of trade partner economies play an important role.
Published by the World Bank, the country's logistics performance evaluating 160 'The Logistics Performance Index' (LPI) 2018 3.15 Turkey ranks the scores xnumx'nc report. Turkey xnumx'ünc was on the list in order 47.
Due to the rise in exchange rates in recent years, the debt burden of the sector has increased rapidly. However, the sector's debt burden is not much higher compared to the share of 7,7 in GDP.
With the acceleration in the debt burden, the sector's non-performing loans, especially 2018, increased significantly. The non-performing credit balance of the Turkish banking sector's transportation and storage sector increased by 2018 to 58,6 billion in 2,8.
As of January 2019, while non-performing credit balance continues to increase, NPL ratio is manageable at 2,5.
Foreign interest in progress
- Despite the weak performance in recent years, the interest of foreign investors in the sector continues. 4,7 was the 5 billion dollar foreign investment inflow in the last 15 year to the sector, including over a billion dollars last 7,1 years.
Sea transport increased
- Of last year 15 sea transport in Turkey has increased its share in both export and import. On the other hand, it is seen that road transport has declined. On the import side, crude oil and natural gas transportation with pipelines is an important part. Freight transport by rail still has a very low share in both exports and imports.
Significant quality improvements were made in the last 16 year in the most preferred road transport in domestic passenger and freight transportation. 2003-2018 year between the total road length of 63 thousand 244 km from 67 thousand 891 rose kms, the length of divided highways increased by more than 5 times, the highway length thousand 753 km from 2 thousand 717 kilometers out.
2002'den 47,2'den 2018 exports of the part of the sea transported, 62,8'de rose to 46'den percent. In the same period, the ratio of the part of the imports carried by sea increased from 59,6 to 2003. 190 2018 460 XNUMX million tons in the amount of total handled XNUMX reached the end of XNUMX million tons.
The amount of cargo transported by air 2002-2003 1 million tons in the year is below the 2018 3,8 million tonnes.
Increase in the number of passengers
- The number of domestic passengers annually 2002 million people in 8,7, 2018 112,8 million was reached, the number of international passengers 25,1 97,2 million million.
The number of passengers transported by rail from the suburbs 2003-2017 3,5 million people, rising between the 160,5 solid exceeded, the intercity passenger transport fell from the 27,3 15 million people million people.
High-speed train (YHT) and passenger transport with the desired levels, but not yet fast development shows. The annual number of passengers in the yht' in 2009 1 2017 million at the end was reached under which 7,2 million people.
Pipeline 4 doubled
- The 2002 4 739 2017 14 666 17 3 56 3 at the end of the 12,4 reached km. During this period, the amount of natural gas transported by the pipeline rose from 36 billion smXNUMX to XNUMX billion smXNUMX. Although the crude oil pipeline shrank a little in the same period, it has increased from XNUMX million tons to XNUMX million tons annually using high efficiency.