According to the Transportation Sector Outlook 2019 report prepared by KPMG, the Turkish transportation sector, which was prepared for a difficult year with the expectation of slow growth in the world economy and trade volume, will survive 2019 thanks to its geographical location and the flexibility of the economy in foreign trade. However, according to the report, the guarantee of efficiency in the sector, innovative technologies adapt quickly.
KPMG's report on Turkey prepared by the Transport Sector Outlook series, 2019 shows the expectations of an economic slowdown worldwide will also affect the transport sector.
According to the report, the fluctuation in foreign exchange rates and oil prices in the last period has put great pressure on the sector. This situation is expected to continue in the upcoming period due to the current global uncertainties.
KPMG Turkey Transport Sector Leader Yavuz Öner, Turkey transportation and logistics sector, thanks to the flexibility of its geographic position and the economy's foreign trade is on the front in the medium term while emphasizing "However, the industry in the long term transformation in line with the development in digital technology to keep up with global competition must be carried out," he said .
SITUATION IN THE WORLD
- The Baltic Dry dry load index, a pioneer in terms of global trade, has been shrinking since September.
Germany is also number one in the Logistics Performance Index prepared by the World Bank. Germany, Sweden, Belgium, Austria and Japan follow.
- Economic activity has slowed down, while trade volume is losing momentum due to protectionist measures in global trade and the uncertainties stemming from Britain's exit from the EU (Brexit). For this reason, a challenging outlook appears in the short term in terms of the transportation and logistics sector worldwide.
The business model in maritime transport is changing from port to port instead from customer to customer.
The ongoing growth trend despite the slowdown in the world economy keeps the demand alive in air transport.
SITUATION IN TURKEY
- Turkish transport and logistics sector followed a fluctuating course in the post-crisis period. In this case, geopolitical developments and the performance of trade partner economies play an important role.
Published by the World Bank, the country's logistics performance of 160 reviewers 'The Logistics Performance Index' (LPI) 2018 Turkey ranks 3.15th in the report scoring 47. Turkey was 2016th on the list in 34 as well.
Due to the rise in exchange rates in recent years, the debt burden of the sector has increased rapidly. However, the sector's debt burden is not much higher compared to the share of 7,7 in GDP.
Along with the acceleration in debt burden, the sector's non-performing loans also increased significantly, especially in 2018. The NPL balance stemming from the Turkish banking sector's transportation and storage sector increased by 2018 percent in 58,6 and reached TL 2,8 billion.
As of January 2019, while non-performing credit balance continues to increase, NPL ratio is manageable at 2,5.
Foreign interest in progress
- Despite the weak performance in recent years, the interest of foreign investors in the sector continues. 4,7 was the 5 billion dollar foreign investment inflow in the last 15 year to the sector, including over a billion dollars last 7,1 years.
Sea transport increased
- Of sea transport in the last 15 years Turkey has increased its share in both export and import. However, road transport seems to have declined. On the import side, crude oil and natural gas transportation with pipelines occupy an important place. Freight transport by rail still has an extremely low share in both exports and imports.
Significant quality improvements have been made in the last 16 years in road transportation, which is the most preferred in domestic passenger and cargo transportation. Between 2003 and 2018, the total road length increased from 63 thousand 244 km to 67 thousand 891 km, the length of the divided roads increased more than 5 times, the length of the highway increased from 753 km to 2 km.
The portion of exports, which was 2002 percent in 47,2, was transported by sea, to 2018 percent in 62,8. In the same period, the proportion of the portion of imports carried by sea increased from 46 percent to 59,6 percent. The total amount of cargo handled, which was 2003 million tons in 190, reached 2018 million tons at the end of 460.
While the amount of cargo transported by air was below 2002 million tons in 2003-1, it increased to 2018 million tons in 3,8.
Increase in the number of passengers
- The annual number of domestic passengers, which was 2002 million people in 8,7, reached 2018 million in 112,8, while the number of international passengers increased from 25,1 million to 97,2 million.
The number of passengers transported by rail from the suburbs 2003-2017 3,5 million people, rising between the 160,5 solid exceeded, the intercity passenger transport fell from the 27,3 15 million people million people.
Passenger transportation with high speed train (YHT) is developing rapidly, even if it is not at the desired levels. While the annual number of passengers at YHT was less than 2009 million in 1, it reached 2017 million at the end of 7,2.
Pipeline 4 doubled
- The length of the natural gas pipeline, which was 2002 km in 4, reached 739 km at the end of 2017. In this period, the amount of natural gas carried by the pipeline increased from 14 billion sm666 to 17 billion sm3. Although the crude oil pipeline has shrunk somewhat in the same period, it has been used at high efficiency and has increased from 56 million tons to 3 million tons annually.