Economic impact of Marmaray

The economic impact of Marmaray: A year has passed since Marmaray's inauguration. This year, according to the information reflected in the press 100 thousand times and 1 thousand thousand kilometers 400 has traveled a thousand kilometers. More importantly the total 50 million passengers moved. This means that the average 140 is close to a thousand per day.

What do these figures mean? Is Marmaray a good project? Can we say something by looking at the first year figures?

The answer to these important questions is given through the so-called 'impact analysis'. The Ministry of Transport, which is the owner of the project, did not give a statement on the impact of the project. So we answer these questions we PGlobal Global Consulting and Education Services Ltd. Let's try to find the results made by using an analysis. The 'economic impact analysis' by PGlobal has digitized the economic and social benefits of the project. First of all, Marmaray provides 'time saving' to Istanbulans. This saving is not valid for Marmaray's own route. Marmaray also benefited from the related routes. Except Marmaray, CO2 oscillations, which will be created by passenger cars, buses, minibuses or ferries, decreased after Marmaray. Similarly, energy consumption decreased. Finally, Marmaray has also reduced the number of accidents and deaths on road routes. These four pens are digitized in impact analysis. Of course, all these benefits are related to the number of people carried. In the analysis based on the calculations made at the end of the 2013, PGlobal has created many passenger scenarios, but on the conservative basis, the results of three scenarios (good, medium, bad) have been published. Even the good scenario is below last year's realization figures announced last week.

So how did the numerical results of the project's effects be calculated in this analysis? In the study, the ratio of the economic / social benefits of the project (discounted and discounted in accordance with the project) to the monetary cost was calculated to be 2,22 on average. The fact that the passenger carried in the first year is quite above the middle scenario shows that this pro social benefit-cost senaryo ratio is higher when the project will serve. The internal rate of return is calculated as 16,2 in real terms. A very high rate of return for an infrastructure project. As in the cost-benefit ratio, the fact that real passenger transport figures are high here also means that the internal rate of return will be higher.

Result; Marmaray is a good project. Impact analysis shows that. Wouldn't it be more appropriate for the public sector to explain the projects realized by the public to the society with their 'digital' effects, whether for local or central government? In order to do this, it is necessary to carry out a feasibility study on projects and impact analyzes on several years after the project is completed. These are the things that make the public spend the money in the right place. But first, the public has to meet (re) the concepts and consultancy services of feasibility and impact analysis.

Armin

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