State guarantee shock to third airport

State guarantee shock to third airport
3 with great risks in terms of auction price. the airport was now a 'frenzy project' with much sharper risks.

We have previously written several articles about the third airport to be built in Istanbul. The project, which is the biggest privatization in the history of the Republic with 36.5 billion euros, is vital as well as economically and politically. The sustainability of the AK Party's growth model based on construction and urban rent before the critical elections to be held in the next two years… And for the continuation of the prosperity-based voting system, it is a vital necessity to make the airport… Because the mentioned airport was mentioned by Prime Minister Erdoğan before the 2011 elections. The series is located in the middle of crazy projects consisting of huge building complex.

The third airport, Kanal Istanbul, "crazy projects" consisting of satellite cities that will rise next to them... To ensure the growth in the construction sector, which is in a big dead end due to miscalculations, and the continuation of urban rents... New job fields to be created directly and indirectly, employment increase, kazanIncreasing domestic and purchasing power… And ultimately, they stand out as the AK Party's greatest trump cards for the continuation of economic growth and political success… The fate of not only the AK Party but also the capital groups that support the government are shaped around these projects.

going well almost everything initially in terms of projects, the obstinate in Gezi Park events before the last two months ... Then the interest rate increase releases of the US Central Bank ... And finally the rapidly changing perspective against in terms of global investors in developing countries like Turkey ... Overall the crazy projects, and in particular It was a great misfortune in terms of the third airport.

Limak's boss, Nihat Özdemir, and the fifth investment group, including Cengiz İnşaat, which has been in the leading role in almost every public investment, has turned into a very questionable project due to shocks such as exchange rate, interest and growth. . The inquiries are very normal because the changing conditions within two months increased the final cost of the project by $ 6-7 billion. The third airport, which already has big risks in terms of tender price, is now a 'madness project' with much sharper risks.

While all this was going on, the tender kazanThe group has often cited the state guarantee of 6.4 billion euros as the biggest force behind the project. However, a banker friend of mine, who had been following the tender process from the very beginning, gave such information that I began to believe more and more that the construction of the airport was close to impossible.

The view of bankers is changing

Let me summarize as much as I can take notes from his mouth: “The state guarantee of 6.4 billion euros will be given in the first 12 years after the airport is opened. In order for the passenger guarantee to work, it is necessary to finish the investment of 7 billion euros first. And then the rent of 1 billion 45 million euros has to be paid every year. In addition, we estimate the annual operating expense to be around EUR 450 million. In summary, the tender kazanIn the first 12 years, groups are at risk of 12.5 billion euros, of which 7 billion euros is rent, 5.4 billion euros is construction costs and 25 billion euros is operating expenses. Yes, there is a state guarantee of 6.4 billion euros. But first they need to be able to do these things… In order for banks to give loans, they need to convince the bankers that they can reach the level of government guarantees. However, all they have is 2 billion euros in equity.”

Putting the previous statements of my banker friend and Nihat Özdemir side by side, it turned out that their point of view was diametrically opposite. The banker looks from the opposite of Özdemir's direction. This is our problem anyway.

Personally, I'm not as pessimistic as the banker. AK Party will insist on this issue, kazanmoment will try to make various gestures to the groups. Only then, the philosophy of the business will become politically questionable, and the project will turn into a political symbol.

Source : I

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